Gridiron Challenge: Week 5 previewBy Tristan H. Cockcroft
It might not be the case on Wall Street, but it's an exceptional time for investing in the Gridiron Challenge. With at least four teams on bye in each of the next six weeks, the player pool will run shallower deep into November, so if you can lock in at least one "investment" type per skill position -- quarterback, running back and wide receiver -- believe me, you're going to be better off. My strategy: Lock in one spot, and use the other one to play matchups on a week-to-week basis. That is, if you don't make great deals locking in both!
Bull market: Invest now
Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys (6.5 price tag): Dallas' upcoming schedule is extraordinary; it includes games against the Bengals, Cardinals and Rams, three defenses that lack the personnel to contain an offense this potent. Cincinnati and St. Louis both rank among the bottom 10 run defenses, and if you consider the likelihood the Cowboys will roll up the score on all three of those teams, Barber should be a huge part of the game plan, more in line with his 28 carries of Week 3 than eight of Week 4. Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers (5.8): He's coming off a 294-yard, two-touchdown passing effort within the division, and now he gets a stretch of three home games in four weeks, with the one road contest a division affair against the Buccaneers, against whom he threw four scores in two meetings during his last healthy season in 2006. Delhomme hasn't shown any ill effects from Tommy John surgery, so if you'd prefer to lock in a cheap No. 2 quarterback and play matchups from your top spot, here's your man. Matt Forte, RB, Bears (5.8): Detroit's run defense is the worst in football, allowing 207.7 yards per game, and before you point out that hot-starting Michael Turner and Frank Gore have been responsible for much of the carnage, Week 2 provided perhaps the strongest evidence yet of Detroit's shortcomings. With Ryan Grant hobbled by a hamstring problem, backup Brandon Jackson -- fresh off a concussion -- amassed 61 yards and a score on seven carries. Folks, Forte is a far more explosive runner than Jackson, on par with a Turner or Gore, and through four games he has an NFL-high 92 carries. That might catch up with him in time, but in Week 5 at Detroit, and Week 6 at Atlanta, too, he should get more than enough work to top 100-plus yards and a score each game. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (5.6): Bottom line, he's way too cheap for a receiver practically guaranteed to rank among the top 10 at his position come season's end. For that reason, while most everyone else will be scared off by this week's matchup with the Bears, I'd roll the dice on it. Frankly, if he overcomes Chicago, he's going to be more expensive come Weeks 6-8, when he'll draw the Vikings, Texans and Redskins, teams that can't possibly contain him. Can you imagine a top-10 receiver priced under 6.0 going up against those pass defenses? Another thing that might work in his favor this week: the Bears could be without Charles Tillman, whose shoulder has been bothering him, and that'd put them at a significant disadvantage in the secondary if he sits. Randy Moss, WR, Patriots (5.9): I said it last week and will repeat it now: Moss can't possibly get much cheaper than this. Do you honestly believe the Patriots want to take the risk of having him unhappy? Do you really think he's a 64-catch, 869-yard, three-touchdown receiver, as is his current pace? Facing the 49ers has all the makings of a bounce-back matchup for him, and then he gets the Chargers, Broncos and Rams, three pass defenses that have been awful to date. Sounds like a good buy-in time. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (7.2): Again, the Cowboys' schedule is about as favorable as anyone's the next three weeks, against horrid pass defenses in the Bengals (Week 5) and Rams (Week 7). As for the Cardinals (Week 6) -- well, Brett Favre just tore them up for six passing scores, so even if Adrian Wilson's absence was partly to blame, the healthy return of one man can't get that defense back into "good" territory. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans (5.2): He's the sleeper of all sleepers in the GC for the next four weeks, because he'll be playing entirely at home and entirely against teams with porous defensive fronts. The Colts (Week 5), Lions (Week 7) and Bengals (Week 8) rank 31st, 32nd and 28th, respectively, defending the run. Miami might present some problems for Slaton in Week 6, but at least that's a home game. It's hard not to deal with that so-so matchup in exchange for the three other meaty ones surrounding it. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers (5.2): Now that was more like it. Smith stepped up with 96 yards and a score in Week 4, proving he's back to his old top-10 receiver standard. He's one of the most skilled pass-catchers in football, and a primary reason I'm big on the aforementioned Delhomme. At a 5.2 price tag, Smith is cheaper than such stalwarts as Wes Welker, Hines Ward and Laveranues Coles. Do you honestly believe he'll finish with fewer points than any of those guys, even with the two missed games? I sure don't. One-week ponies: Week 5
Chris Chambers, WR, Dolphins (@MIA, 5.4 price tag): Motivation is a huge thing in professional sports; just ask Manny Ramirez, over in the baseball playoffs. But showing up your former team in front of your old fans qualifies as a major motivating factor, and fact is, this will be Chambers' first visit back to Miami since the Dolphins traded him midway through last season. The Dolphins' defense is poor against the pass, with the second-worst passer rating allowed (114.8), so the matchup suits Chambers as well. He should go off. Anthony Fasano, TE, Dolphins (SD, 4.8): The numbers don't lie; the Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns in four games, and five of those were amassed by tight ends, including one in each contest. Dante Rosario, Dustin Keller and Zach Miller has each made them look silly, and let's not forget that the Dolphins might be forced to the air often while playing catch-up. Who else might they throw to? Greg Camarillo? Derek Hagan? Ted Ginn Jr., sure, but he's no elite talent. Expect a big game from Fasano. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers (@DEN, 5.7): In each of the past two weeks, the Broncos have fallen prey to a two-touchdown game by an opposing running back; it was Pierre Thomas in Week 3 and Larry Johnson in Week 4. Johnson, incidentally, exposed the flaws in the Denver defensive front, slicing and dicing it for 198 yards. The numbers might lead you to think the Broncos are more susceptible to the pass than the run, but that's simply not true. The Chiefs just showed you the way to beat this defense is to attack it up front, and it's a game plan the Buccaneers are sure to replicate Sunday. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (@HOU, 6.8): Just to throw the numbers at you, in 12 career meetings with the Texans, Manning has 11 wins, 29 touchdowns, four interceptions, a 120.0 passer rating and an average of 274.3 passing yards per game. So pretty much the only things he hasn't done in those games is cure cancer, solve world hunger and balance the budget? I don't think I've seen a higher level of player-versus-team dominance, outside of the aforementioned Manny Ramirez against the Yankees. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (KC, 5.1): DeAngelo Williams lurks, but I think the past three weeks have demonstrated to us, definitively, that Stewart is the goal-line back in Carolina. As such, when the matchup is skewed ridiculously in the Panthers' favor, Stewart is the one to get. This one sure qualifies, as while the Chiefs stifled the Broncos' running game in Week 4, remember that's not nearly as deep a running game as Carolina's. A better representation is Kansas City's Weeks 2-3 performance defending the run: They allowed a combined 486 yards and five touchdowns to the Raiders and Falcons. Tristan's Week 5 lineup
Total points: 417. Back-to-back weeks of better than 120 points have me back near the 80th percentile -- not bad for an 18.4 percent first week. This week's goal, as I look to lock in some values for the next several weeks, is to get into the mid-80s, perhaps sneak past 85. As you can see, five of my "bull market" picks cracked my Week 5 lineup. Boy, did I want to get Peyton Manning into the mix, but owning Kurt Warner at 1.0 beneath his current market value made letting him go an unreasonable decision at this point.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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